This study utilizes the synthetic control method to assess the economic consequences of the ongoing civil war in the Central African Republic since December 2012. Drawing on a donor pool of low-income and lower-middle-income countries, it constructs a synthetic counterfactual to depict the economic trajectory in the absence of conflict. The analysis reveals a significant decline in national gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, estimated between 45.3 percent and 47.8 percent over a decade of conflict, resulting in a cumulative GDP loss of US}29.7 billion to US}32.4 billion (purchasing power parity, PPP, adjusted). Two model specifications are employed, one using pre-treatment outcomes and the other integrating external covariates. Robustness checks support the findings, indicating a minimum 10-year decline of 35.3 percent in GDP per capita. Even considering the 2003 coup, this civil war has the most detrimental economic impact. The analysis remains robust when incorporating GDP data from remote sensing sources. These effects align with the fragility trap concept, portraying one of the highest economic impacts of civil conflict in terms of relative GDP per capita decline.
@article{mandon_stuck_2024,title={Stuck in a {Fragility} {Trap}: {The} {Case} of the {Central} {African} {Republic} {Civil} {War}},volume={0},issn={1024-2694},shorttitle={Stuck in a {Fragility} {Trap}},url={https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2024.2385385},doi={10.1080/10242694.2024.2385385},number={0},urldate={2024-08-16},journal={Defence and Peace Economics},author={Mandon, Pierre and Nossek, Vincent and Sandjong Tomi, Diderot},year={2024},note={Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2024.2385385},keywords={C31, Central African Republic, civil war, D74, fragility trap, O11, synthetic control method},pages={1--34}}
2021
Perception of COVID-19 and household behavior in Burkina Faso: Data analysis from a sample survey
Jacky Mathonnat, Martine Audibert, and Vincent Nossek
Very soon after the first cases of COVID-19 appeared on the African continent, governments adopted a series of measures to limit its spread. To be effective, these measures require that they be widely accepted and respected by the population, notwithstanding their various costs to the individual. Compliance depends on numerous individual and collective cultural, socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental factors, as well as on the perception of the risks involved and the severity of the multifaceted consequences that the pandemic may generate.We examine these various issues based on data from a survey conducted in Burkina Faso in May–June 2020. It appears that the measures taken by the authorities to limit the pandemic’s spread are very inconsistently complied with. The vast majority of respondents take the pandemic very seriously, believing that the health consequences, and even more so the economic consequences, will be serious. The survey also shows that a large proportion of respondents are concerned about the pandemic’s effects on the deepening of inequalities and the potential increase in violence and insecurity. The results highlight both common features and a great variety in perceptions and behavioral responses at the individual and regional levels. Burkina Faso’s decision-makers can use these results to better calibrate the prevention strategies to be implemented, as the prospect of broad immunization coverage remains both distant and highly uncertain, and to be ready to respond to future pandemics.Codes JEL : I12, I18, D10, P36, O55.
@article{mathonnat_perception_2021,title={Perception of {COVID}-19 and household behavior in {Burkina} {Faso}: {Data} analysis from a sample survey},volume={29},issn={1245-4060},shorttitle={Perception of {COVID}-19 and household behavior in {Burkina} {Faso}},url={https://www-cairn-int-info.ezproxy.uca.fr/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=E_EDD_351_0111},language={fr},number={1},urldate={2024-08-16},journal={Revue deconomie du developpement},author={Mathonnat, Jacky and Audibert, Martine and Nossek, Vincent},year={2021},pages={111--165}}
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2018
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2016
Revisiter le bilan des OMD par la variation du Logit
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2014
Statistical Assessment of the SDGs in the LDCs and other Vulnerable
This document provides a statistical comparison of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and their main targets in the least developed countries, other vulnerable countries and other developing countries. It is based on the list of SDGs adopted in September 2015 during the 70th session of th...